Site safety issues have always been a significant concern in the industrial world. As in any other industry, the construction industry also has a deep impact because of accidents. Accidents do have greater impact on human life and health but besides these, there are several other issues affected by an accident in a working area. Site accidents can have serious effect on the company’s position and reputation in the extremely competitive construction marketplace due to the direct impact on the company’s business.
Different researchers have attempted to identify the factors attributable to a successful construction project. It was obviously seen that, in the components of project management factors, safety management or safety program is one of complementary factors contributing to a project success.
There are several questions and concern that every policy maker trying to focus on safety matters in a company. The basic drawback of the policy maker is that they always search for the defect in their policy rather than evaluating the working environment and conditions under which it had been adopted. It should be noticed that the policy that has been effective 10 years back may not produce the same result today. Also the policy that has successful in one region may not bear the same outcome in the other. The effectiveness of policy depends not only in the content of policy itself but also on factors like time, working culture, hierarchical need, human attitude, behavior etc.
Throughout the entire construction projects life starting from the design phase to the very end of execution phase, numerous project management actions are deployed in terms of planning, scheduling, quality assurance and communication system (Chan et. al, 2004). Action involving safety issues is also a basic process included in order to execute the project safely. This is because a major accident during execution phase can leads to many problems for company.
As a result, many companies have established own safety program for preventing the occurrence of accidents, as they have recognized the potential impacts of accidents and their impacts in the longer run. But do they ever review “What are the impacts of such safety program”, “Are these safety programs consistent or are they being followed with great care” or in other words whether the program positively or negatively affected their execution or is there any consistency in their Safety Management System Implementation. National Occupational Health & Safety Commission (NOHSC) has stated that most of companies have traditionally focused only on outcome measures of performance, for example, the accident records.
Therefore, Mr. Niraj Baidya made a study to review the actual position which main aspect is that, under their safety program, do they know these:
1. Whether the root causes of accidents still exist or were eliminated.
2. Whether the safety program implemented is effective or not.
3. Whether project participants are satisfied with the program.
4. How consistency they are in terms of their Safety Management System Implementation
This study primarily aimed to investigate the Consistency of Safety Management System Implementation using the System Dynamics Approach under safety operation of Case Study Company i.e. Bovis Lend Lease (Thailand) Limited. The main objectives of the study were to: (1) identify the endogenous and extraneous factors which affect safety performance; and (2) develop a system dynamics model to explain how the factors affect the safety performance
Conclusion
This research investigated the impact of various components on the site condition in terms of unsafe act and condition in the various Bovis projects. The objective of this modeling exercise was firstly to understand the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the safety performance of various Bovis projects and develop a system dynamics model to explain how the factors affect the safety performance and secondly to identify the general guidelines for policy formulation. Budget, attitude and behavior, BLL employee commitment, BLL employee understanding, BLL supervision, equipment on hand, knowledge, pre contractual communication, safety practice, safety training, subcontractor supervision, subcontractor understanding, top management commitment, understanding BLL requirement, and worker understanding are the primary focused variables. Going into details of each factors helps to give a clear picture of the problem existing in the site. These are the key factors that have been found during generic model formulation. However, these issues are further influenced by several factors which have been explained briefly as follows:
1. Unsafe site condition is positively influenced by the work speed, uncertainties and the skilled fraction in the project. Complexity of project and weather influenced the uncertainties whereas the total number of workers and skilled workers generates skilled fraction. Unsafe condition causes accident generation, thus affecting the progress rate. Progress rate results the increment of schedule pressure and thus increasing the work speed.
2. Understanding of worker, subcontractor and BLL staff directly affected by the knowledge flow gained from the safety training. With the improvement of understanding, supervision and commitment level of the different parties enhances, thus affecting the attitude and behavior or workers and improve the site condition.
3. Subcontractor safety understanding, experience working with BLL and BLL work system comprising of pre contractual document, safety practice and coordination positively affects the subcontractor understanding of BLL safety requirement. In addition to subcontractor understanding, intention of subcontractor affects the subcontractor budget allocation and safety expenses.
4. Complexity of project, client and the desired goal of safety condition implemented by the BLL management influence the budget allocation.
A dynamic simulation model representing the perceived mode was built using the system dynamic methodology. Simulation describes the current behavior and the inferred future. Site condition is measured in terms of unsafe act, condition and accident record of the project. The model structure is based on the literature reviews and the information gathered from the interview conducted with the different parties namely Bovis Project team, subcontractors and the workers involved in the project site.
Sensitivity test indicate the potential parameters for behavioral improvement. The model was applied to the investigation for various components affecting the safety performance. Real life practices were explored to make practically possible changes in the sensitive parameters. Three policies in order to improve the safety training and knowledge flow, Proactive subcontractor awareness and improving supervision were presented in the model for an improved and safe site condition. The implementation methodology of the derived policies was also described in a reasonable detail.
Recommendation
To enhance the project site condition, the following recommendations are suggested:
1. To develop a Proactive Awareness to Subcontractor. BLL should not only to provide the written documents and formal meeting but also arrange some kind of workshop where the sub contractor are provided with training and demonstration about all the safety need so that they have thorough with the Bovis safety requirement before the commencement of the work.
2. Supervision is a critical process for maintaining proper site condition. Thus BLL should provide sufficient training and information to all supervisors. They could also provide a specialist supervisor in the site. Providing a supervisor who is specialist to his work increases the effectiveness of supervision on the site by. Having a specialist leads to not only proper quality of work, but the attitude and behavior of workers to quality and safety increases.
3. Training is the most common method of responding to employee’s performance deficiencies. BLL should make their training program more effective by providing focused group training, survey based training and interactive training. For the focused training, workers should be divided into groups based on their skill and scope of work. The training program content and method of presentation should reflect the needs and characteristics of the work force. Safety program should also comprise of evaluation procedure to determine its effective and to provide feedback for future improvement.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted
ABSTRACT
The construction industry is notorious for its poor safety record when compared with other industries. The major causes of accidents have been identified, and can be directly attributed to unsafe design and site practices. Accidents arise from different causes that can generally be classified as physical incidents posing hazardous situations, and behavioral incidents caused by unsafe acts. These studies is concerned with understanding the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous factors affecting the safety performance in terms of unsafe act and condition of various Bovis projects from different prospective of BLL employees, Subcontractors and workers. Based on the factors, an applicable simulation model was built using the system dynamic methodology. The model was calibrated to investigate its dynamic problem to explain how the factors affect the safety performance and to formulate and evaluate the practical policies to improve the performances. In order to considerably improve performance and to be able to adapt to different scenarios, four integrated policies combining the individual policies having the most potential were evaluated. The results reveals that Developing a Safety Culture, Effective and Focused Training Program, Proactive Awareness to Subcontractor and Specialist Supervisor are the most effective policies for improving the exiting safe site condition.
Wednesday, 20 January 2010
Tuesday, 19 January 2010
A Study Of Safety Budgeting Process In Thai Construction Projects
Most incidents in the construction industry are caused by human act more than improper conditions. Heinrich (1920), who studied accidents in industrial, mentioned that there are three main causes of accidents. First, 88% are human causes, 10% are mechanical failures or improper conditions, and acts of God are 2%. In order to reduce the accident, construction companies have to emphasis on safety programs which relate to human act more than the working condition.
The Social Security Office in Thailand has classified the construction industry at the high risk of accident. In order to avoid accidents, construction companies have to allocate some budget to manage site safety. Since this safety budget will be a part of the total bidding price, contractors must be able to estimate the budget for a competitive bidding price. Otherwise, the contractor might not be able to get the project.
In the competitive construction environment, the essence of estimating safety budget is emphasized not only preventing accidents, but also minimizing the total cost and time of project. There are three exiting methods in order to estimate safety budget. Firstly, estimate by using optimal cost of safety, this method try to find the optimal cost between accident costs and investment costs of safety. According to Son et al. (2000) and Tang et al. (1997), the optimization of safety cost in construction is proposed. They collected accident costs and safety investment costs from the companies and studied the relationship in order to find the optimal cost of safety. Second method, estimating by manual calculation, the lists of all safety requirements in design state will be calculated into cost. Third method, estimate by using percentage of safety budget from the total budget. Unfortunately, each method of safety budget estimation has its own limitation and not applicable for all types of construction project. It is still skeptical and questionable why different project has a different safety budget.
In Thai construction industry, base on an interview with several construction companies, most of safety budget in local construction companies was estimated by two approaches: experience of estimator and requirement of owner. In case of estimating safety budget by the estimator’s experience, a problem mostly occurring was inadequacy of safety budget during construction stage. They had to use another cost item as a budget for safety work. For some of international construction companies, on the other hand, they estimate safety budget in percentage of total budget. Therefore, the project’s safety budget exceeds the actual cost can be happened. Both of methods are unreliable and not systematic. Clearly, there is currently no competency and reliable systems for estimating of safety budget.
Mr. Siwachon Limpakornkul made a study which main objective is to investigate the safety budgeting processes in building construction projects. In order to achieve the main objective, his study sub-objectives were to (1) identify the process of safety budgeting; (2) identify problems occurring in the existing safety budgeting practice; (3) identify the factors that affect safety budget; and (4) recommend a better safety budgeting mechanism.
Conclusions
Nowadays, Thai construction companies pay attention in safety construction more than the past. Because the development of construction industrial changes from developing to developed country, the contractor must improve their quality of work in order to qualify for ISO. The safety management system is one of the systems that need a number of improvements especially in the context of developing country like Thailand. Some of the companies lack of understanding the safety management and thus perceive safety cost as a necessary evil as well as a fortune. The way capable of changing their perception is to promote the knowledge of safety such as in term of costs. The safety cost is the main focus in this research. The purpose is to give an idea that the safety cost or the safety investment is not a useless cost when compared with the accident cost.
The weakness of the current bidding system is that a contractor who bids a project with minimum price will get the project. This system will have an impact to the safety budget and the safety program approach to be included in the project and thus generate the occurrence of an accident. This research aims to identify the safety items and study the estimating process of safety budget and to find out the factor affecting the safety budget by interviewing several respondents in Thai construction companies and making a summarization into four case studies.
The data collection requires a lot of cooperation from the companies and some of the companies did not wish to support or attend an interview or did not cooperate with the academic approach. Only the companies that realize the importance of academic research have paid attention in the study and thus allow for data collection. These included 8 companies and 20 respondents in data collection. The framework of this research was thus generated and concluded into safety budget life cycle including planning, budgeting, and monitoring state. In the addition, the estimation processing on safety budget, the development of safety budget and calculation, affecting factors on safety budget, problems of safety budget and monitoring safety budget would be explained.
The process of safety budget
Normally, most of the investigated companies divided their business operations into two parts; head office and site operation units. The major goal of the head office is to get the project from project’s bidding or direct hired. The major goal of site operation is to operate the project within time, cost, quality, and safety. The project manger is the person who has the highest authority in the project. The safety budget is one of duties that the project manager has to handle. The estimation of safety budget can be concluded into three methods; manually calculation safety items or unit price, using lump sum cost, and percentage. The arrangement of safety items were organized by each of the companies. Safety budget in views of most of the companies includes PPE, safety programs, safety items which used only for safety. However, there were still such safety items that were hidden in main construction items or direct cost.
The problems occur in the existing safety budgeting practice
According to the data analysis, most of the contractors had the same problems on safety budget. The main problem was safety budget overrun. It was evident that most of them estimated safety budget by using their experience with lack of a systematic calculation. In addition, they were not able to identify the safety items clearly in the safety budget which includes: cost of PPE, safety programs, and supportive items for safety.
The factors that affect safety budget
The factors affecting the safety budget of the company were divided into two groups. The first group of factors was identified by the contractors who has clearly separated safety budget from the total budget and has been monitoring safety budget during construction. These factors included type of project, safety programs approach, number of workers, subcontractors, worker’s experience, and type of owner. On the other hand, several factors were also identified by the contractors who were not clearly separate safety budget from the total budget and lacked of monitoring the safety budget including location of project, market condition, consultant, total budget, and project duration.
Recommendation
The four stages recommendation was given in order to improve the existing process of safety budget for Thai construction contractors.
First is a planning stage, the project manager must involve in every project in order to select the suitable safety items and prepare the safety programs to a particular project.
Second is a budgeting stage, this aims to group the safety items into one group of safety budget. There are six accounts related to safety items; small tools, safety materials, wage & OT, subcontractor, rent, and special items.
Third is a monitoring safety budget by reporting every month.
Final stage is recording the actual cost of safety budget into a database. The database can be such intelligent system when input the information. This system should be able to predict the future safety budget and current safety cost expended.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
The safety cost is one major element of the total cost that a construction company has to control as it can cause the construction organization to have a loss or accomplishment the goal of profit. Because of the problems on a lack of understanding of safety management as well as a lack of allocating safety budget management, Thai contractors have encountered with such accidents in the job site. To overcome these problems, studying the exiting safety budget process and the requirements for achieving such effective system were conducted. Besides, factors affecting safety budget, problem of safety budget, and monitoring of safety budget were also identified in this study. This study assessed four case studies from different contractors (i.e. foreigner international contractor, Thai international contractors, and local contractor). Data from Thai construction companies which have experience in high-rised building was collected by in-depth interview technique. It was found that each of the companies has different perception on factors affecting safety budget, depending on the company’s safety budget process. Most of the companies were struggling to the problems on inability to control their safety budget due to the ambiguous calculation of safety budget as well as the difficulty in predicting the safety items before construction. Moreover, Thai construction regulations were too weak to force the contractor to emphasize more on safety. This study, thus, recommended that a safety manager must be involved in establishing a safety budget as well as recognizing the safety items from both indirect and direct costs into one safety budget. After that, monitoring the safety budget from the beginning until the completion of the project must be performed. The actual cost of safety should be recorded into a database. By following these, the safety budget could be more predictable and controllable and the safety performance of the project was believed to be improved as a consequence.
The Social Security Office in Thailand has classified the construction industry at the high risk of accident. In order to avoid accidents, construction companies have to allocate some budget to manage site safety. Since this safety budget will be a part of the total bidding price, contractors must be able to estimate the budget for a competitive bidding price. Otherwise, the contractor might not be able to get the project.
In the competitive construction environment, the essence of estimating safety budget is emphasized not only preventing accidents, but also minimizing the total cost and time of project. There are three exiting methods in order to estimate safety budget. Firstly, estimate by using optimal cost of safety, this method try to find the optimal cost between accident costs and investment costs of safety. According to Son et al. (2000) and Tang et al. (1997), the optimization of safety cost in construction is proposed. They collected accident costs and safety investment costs from the companies and studied the relationship in order to find the optimal cost of safety. Second method, estimating by manual calculation, the lists of all safety requirements in design state will be calculated into cost. Third method, estimate by using percentage of safety budget from the total budget. Unfortunately, each method of safety budget estimation has its own limitation and not applicable for all types of construction project. It is still skeptical and questionable why different project has a different safety budget.
In Thai construction industry, base on an interview with several construction companies, most of safety budget in local construction companies was estimated by two approaches: experience of estimator and requirement of owner. In case of estimating safety budget by the estimator’s experience, a problem mostly occurring was inadequacy of safety budget during construction stage. They had to use another cost item as a budget for safety work. For some of international construction companies, on the other hand, they estimate safety budget in percentage of total budget. Therefore, the project’s safety budget exceeds the actual cost can be happened. Both of methods are unreliable and not systematic. Clearly, there is currently no competency and reliable systems for estimating of safety budget.
Mr. Siwachon Limpakornkul made a study which main objective is to investigate the safety budgeting processes in building construction projects. In order to achieve the main objective, his study sub-objectives were to (1) identify the process of safety budgeting; (2) identify problems occurring in the existing safety budgeting practice; (3) identify the factors that affect safety budget; and (4) recommend a better safety budgeting mechanism.
Conclusions
Nowadays, Thai construction companies pay attention in safety construction more than the past. Because the development of construction industrial changes from developing to developed country, the contractor must improve their quality of work in order to qualify for ISO. The safety management system is one of the systems that need a number of improvements especially in the context of developing country like Thailand. Some of the companies lack of understanding the safety management and thus perceive safety cost as a necessary evil as well as a fortune. The way capable of changing their perception is to promote the knowledge of safety such as in term of costs. The safety cost is the main focus in this research. The purpose is to give an idea that the safety cost or the safety investment is not a useless cost when compared with the accident cost.
The weakness of the current bidding system is that a contractor who bids a project with minimum price will get the project. This system will have an impact to the safety budget and the safety program approach to be included in the project and thus generate the occurrence of an accident. This research aims to identify the safety items and study the estimating process of safety budget and to find out the factor affecting the safety budget by interviewing several respondents in Thai construction companies and making a summarization into four case studies.
The data collection requires a lot of cooperation from the companies and some of the companies did not wish to support or attend an interview or did not cooperate with the academic approach. Only the companies that realize the importance of academic research have paid attention in the study and thus allow for data collection. These included 8 companies and 20 respondents in data collection. The framework of this research was thus generated and concluded into safety budget life cycle including planning, budgeting, and monitoring state. In the addition, the estimation processing on safety budget, the development of safety budget and calculation, affecting factors on safety budget, problems of safety budget and monitoring safety budget would be explained.
The process of safety budget
Normally, most of the investigated companies divided their business operations into two parts; head office and site operation units. The major goal of the head office is to get the project from project’s bidding or direct hired. The major goal of site operation is to operate the project within time, cost, quality, and safety. The project manger is the person who has the highest authority in the project. The safety budget is one of duties that the project manager has to handle. The estimation of safety budget can be concluded into three methods; manually calculation safety items or unit price, using lump sum cost, and percentage. The arrangement of safety items were organized by each of the companies. Safety budget in views of most of the companies includes PPE, safety programs, safety items which used only for safety. However, there were still such safety items that were hidden in main construction items or direct cost.
The problems occur in the existing safety budgeting practice
According to the data analysis, most of the contractors had the same problems on safety budget. The main problem was safety budget overrun. It was evident that most of them estimated safety budget by using their experience with lack of a systematic calculation. In addition, they were not able to identify the safety items clearly in the safety budget which includes: cost of PPE, safety programs, and supportive items for safety.
The factors that affect safety budget
The factors affecting the safety budget of the company were divided into two groups. The first group of factors was identified by the contractors who has clearly separated safety budget from the total budget and has been monitoring safety budget during construction. These factors included type of project, safety programs approach, number of workers, subcontractors, worker’s experience, and type of owner. On the other hand, several factors were also identified by the contractors who were not clearly separate safety budget from the total budget and lacked of monitoring the safety budget including location of project, market condition, consultant, total budget, and project duration.
Recommendation
The four stages recommendation was given in order to improve the existing process of safety budget for Thai construction contractors.
First is a planning stage, the project manager must involve in every project in order to select the suitable safety items and prepare the safety programs to a particular project.
Second is a budgeting stage, this aims to group the safety items into one group of safety budget. There are six accounts related to safety items; small tools, safety materials, wage & OT, subcontractor, rent, and special items.
Third is a monitoring safety budget by reporting every month.
Final stage is recording the actual cost of safety budget into a database. The database can be such intelligent system when input the information. This system should be able to predict the future safety budget and current safety cost expended.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
The safety cost is one major element of the total cost that a construction company has to control as it can cause the construction organization to have a loss or accomplishment the goal of profit. Because of the problems on a lack of understanding of safety management as well as a lack of allocating safety budget management, Thai contractors have encountered with such accidents in the job site. To overcome these problems, studying the exiting safety budget process and the requirements for achieving such effective system were conducted. Besides, factors affecting safety budget, problem of safety budget, and monitoring of safety budget were also identified in this study. This study assessed four case studies from different contractors (i.e. foreigner international contractor, Thai international contractors, and local contractor). Data from Thai construction companies which have experience in high-rised building was collected by in-depth interview technique. It was found that each of the companies has different perception on factors affecting safety budget, depending on the company’s safety budget process. Most of the companies were struggling to the problems on inability to control their safety budget due to the ambiguous calculation of safety budget as well as the difficulty in predicting the safety items before construction. Moreover, Thai construction regulations were too weak to force the contractor to emphasize more on safety. This study, thus, recommended that a safety manager must be involved in establishing a safety budget as well as recognizing the safety items from both indirect and direct costs into one safety budget. After that, monitoring the safety budget from the beginning until the completion of the project must be performed. The actual cost of safety should be recorded into a database. By following these, the safety budget could be more predictable and controllable and the safety performance of the project was believed to be improved as a consequence.
Monday, 18 January 2010
Application Of Capital Structure Optimization Model For PPP Projects: The Case Study Of Civil Aviation Training Center Of Thailand
Civil Aviation has been recognized as one of the major developments of Thailand. Due to the establishment of the new infrastructure airport called “Suvarnabhumi”, the role of the aviation becomes more and more important to generate the national income. There have been numerous increases in the number of flights and passengers at the major airports in the recent years. All private Thai airlines have been allowed to operate all domestic routes as of September 2000, and international routes as of September 2001. Today, besides THAI Airway International, six private airlines are in operation and further deregulation is expected to allow more airlines to emerge. As a result, it claims for the need of the aviation training center to fulfill the requirement of the human resources for these developments. At present, most of the countries in the South-East Asia have to depend on the training centers of Australia for recruiting the human resources. So if Thailand can operate the aviation training center by itself, it will surely catch the attention of the neighboring countries and will get the good revenue from this project development.
Aviation training becomes one of the major issues as people are more and more interested in traveling by air. The development of the Aviation training centers is also essential to the Thailand due to the development of the new airport “Suvarnabhumi”. In another words, Thailand also becomes in the need of the human resources development in the aviation sector. However, the development of such a training center is not the easy task, especially concerning with the financing. It needs the assurance of the enough amounts of revenues and profits to overcome the project cost and expense. It also asks for the benchmarking with other institutes in the region to know what its competitive advantages that the institute has especially in the financing sector with the help of the proper financial model.
Many of the privatized infrastructure projects have the difficulties and problems in the financing structure. Financing engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. There should be the systematic way of monitoring and controlling the financial condition in every project. There is the need for the development of the sound financial model for evaluating the financial viability of a privatized infrastructure project.
Mr. Aung Khin Tun made a study mainly aimed to investigate and synthesize application of capital structure model in the early stage Public Private Participation (PPP) projects development using modified parameters and variables. After the model has been developed, it was applied to determine the financial viability of capital investment program for the Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand to enhance its service delivery. In accomplishing his main objective, the following sub-objectives had been accomplished: (1) to identify and adopt the financial indicators to be used in developing the financial model based on their applicability and characteristics; (2) to modify the capital structure optimization model to be used as fundamental criteria for investment decision making in the capital investment program; (3) to test the model and parameters thorough the scenario analysis using capital investment program of the Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand (CATC); and (4) to recommend the consideration process for the project participants based on the investment degree in the equity levels.
CONCLUSIONS
Many capital investment programs have been developed across a wide range of industries with the help of privatization. Here, construction and financial risks are two major types of risks in these programs, where the capital structure affects not only the total life-cycle cost of the project that in turn affects its financial viability, but also affects the motivation and commitment of different participation to the success of the project. The evaluation of the financial viability of the project can help the participants to give the overall financial condition of the project on the long-term basis. In this research, the financial model to determine the optimal capital structure was developed for the investment decision making process. The model evaluates the program from the equity holder’s (often contractor) point of view. As a result, the model allows the decision makers to make early decision for capital structuring, hence association structuring to get the optimal capital structure.
From the result of the applicability of the financial model development for the capital investment program with the case study of Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand (CATC), the following conclusions were formed.
1. With the easy input of parameters and variables, the financial model can come up with the useful figures and values to help the decision makers to know about the different scenarios.
2. The financial model developed reflects the characteristics of project finance and incorporates simulation and financial engineering techniques.
3. The model is mainly designed for the capital investment program, by taking accounts of the investment proportions of equity and debt structure, the concession period, and other items featured in the capital investment.
4. The model optimizes the capital structure and evaluates the financial viability of the investment program under construction and economic risks, and is subject to other constraints imposed by different participants such as minimum equity level and minimum DSCR.
5. In generating the model, Total Project Cost (TPC) is found as a function of equity with negative slope because less debt in capital structure means less interest during construction. Accordingly, TPC is a declining function of equity. As a result, more equity means less TPC, and thus less total investment cost for a project. This is one of the reasons why government favors high equity.
6. In determining the optimal equity level for the CATC Program, the maximum equity level that can satisfy the constraints and characteristics of DSCR, NPVp and IRR is selected.
7. Finally, the contribution of the financial model development will significantly facilitate both public and private sector in evaluating the capital investment program’s financial viability and collectively determining an optimal capital structure that safeguards their respective interests.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
The development of PPP projects has been growing rapidly, and numerous projects have been implemented around the world. Public-Private Participation (PPP), in other words, is the initiated combination of capital investment from the public sector and the private sector. One key aspect to the successful implementation of the PPP project in any country is the raising of finance by project sponsors. Financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity and to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. The objective of this research is to present a simplified model to determine the optimum equity level for decision-makers at the evaluation stage of the PPP project, which takes place after the completion of the feasibility study. The resulting model is the combination of optimization model developed in Microsoft Excel with the function of determining the optimal equity level from the equity holder’s point of view. To show versatility of the model, a real case study (Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand) is conducted. Thus, this research is concerned with the determination of an equity funding level in PPP project development. There are different equity levels found in this kind of program, and there is a need for such a model to determine optimal capital structure, which would assist the project sponsors to ensure that the equity level necessary for optimal capital structure is available prior to the project implementation stage.
Aviation training becomes one of the major issues as people are more and more interested in traveling by air. The development of the Aviation training centers is also essential to the Thailand due to the development of the new airport “Suvarnabhumi”. In another words, Thailand also becomes in the need of the human resources development in the aviation sector. However, the development of such a training center is not the easy task, especially concerning with the financing. It needs the assurance of the enough amounts of revenues and profits to overcome the project cost and expense. It also asks for the benchmarking with other institutes in the region to know what its competitive advantages that the institute has especially in the financing sector with the help of the proper financial model.
Many of the privatized infrastructure projects have the difficulties and problems in the financing structure. Financing engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. There should be the systematic way of monitoring and controlling the financial condition in every project. There is the need for the development of the sound financial model for evaluating the financial viability of a privatized infrastructure project.
Mr. Aung Khin Tun made a study mainly aimed to investigate and synthesize application of capital structure model in the early stage Public Private Participation (PPP) projects development using modified parameters and variables. After the model has been developed, it was applied to determine the financial viability of capital investment program for the Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand to enhance its service delivery. In accomplishing his main objective, the following sub-objectives had been accomplished: (1) to identify and adopt the financial indicators to be used in developing the financial model based on their applicability and characteristics; (2) to modify the capital structure optimization model to be used as fundamental criteria for investment decision making in the capital investment program; (3) to test the model and parameters thorough the scenario analysis using capital investment program of the Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand (CATC); and (4) to recommend the consideration process for the project participants based on the investment degree in the equity levels.
CONCLUSIONS
Many capital investment programs have been developed across a wide range of industries with the help of privatization. Here, construction and financial risks are two major types of risks in these programs, where the capital structure affects not only the total life-cycle cost of the project that in turn affects its financial viability, but also affects the motivation and commitment of different participation to the success of the project. The evaluation of the financial viability of the project can help the participants to give the overall financial condition of the project on the long-term basis. In this research, the financial model to determine the optimal capital structure was developed for the investment decision making process. The model evaluates the program from the equity holder’s (often contractor) point of view. As a result, the model allows the decision makers to make early decision for capital structuring, hence association structuring to get the optimal capital structure.
From the result of the applicability of the financial model development for the capital investment program with the case study of Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand (CATC), the following conclusions were formed.
1. With the easy input of parameters and variables, the financial model can come up with the useful figures and values to help the decision makers to know about the different scenarios.
2. The financial model developed reflects the characteristics of project finance and incorporates simulation and financial engineering techniques.
3. The model is mainly designed for the capital investment program, by taking accounts of the investment proportions of equity and debt structure, the concession period, and other items featured in the capital investment.
4. The model optimizes the capital structure and evaluates the financial viability of the investment program under construction and economic risks, and is subject to other constraints imposed by different participants such as minimum equity level and minimum DSCR.
5. In generating the model, Total Project Cost (TPC) is found as a function of equity with negative slope because less debt in capital structure means less interest during construction. Accordingly, TPC is a declining function of equity. As a result, more equity means less TPC, and thus less total investment cost for a project. This is one of the reasons why government favors high equity.
6. In determining the optimal equity level for the CATC Program, the maximum equity level that can satisfy the constraints and characteristics of DSCR, NPVp and IRR is selected.
7. Finally, the contribution of the financial model development will significantly facilitate both public and private sector in evaluating the capital investment program’s financial viability and collectively determining an optimal capital structure that safeguards their respective interests.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
The development of PPP projects has been growing rapidly, and numerous projects have been implemented around the world. Public-Private Participation (PPP), in other words, is the initiated combination of capital investment from the public sector and the private sector. One key aspect to the successful implementation of the PPP project in any country is the raising of finance by project sponsors. Financial engineering techniques and capital structuring skills are required to find the proper mix of debt and equity and to achieve successful financing for the proposed project. The objective of this research is to present a simplified model to determine the optimum equity level for decision-makers at the evaluation stage of the PPP project, which takes place after the completion of the feasibility study. The resulting model is the combination of optimization model developed in Microsoft Excel with the function of determining the optimal equity level from the equity holder’s point of view. To show versatility of the model, a real case study (Civil Aviation Training Center of Thailand) is conducted. Thus, this research is concerned with the determination of an equity funding level in PPP project development. There are different equity levels found in this kind of program, and there is a need for such a model to determine optimal capital structure, which would assist the project sponsors to ensure that the equity level necessary for optimal capital structure is available prior to the project implementation stage.
Wednesday, 13 January 2010
Risk Approaches For Making Go/No-Go Decisions By Thai Consulting Engineering Firms
Thai construction situation was fast moving before the 1997 crisis, but after the crisis, most of the consulting engineering firms are faced with many difficulties to reconstruct their firms. Most clients are afraid of unstable situations and so investments in construction business slowed down. Nowadays, however, there is more supply than demand in the Thai consulting engineering environment (Consulting Engineers Association of Thailand, CEAT, 2005). The numbers of consulting engineering firms in the current situation are more than before the crises because the foreign consulting firms, joint venture consulting firms are expanding their business in Thailand.
Moreover, most Thai consulting engineering firms are finding international projects especially in Southern Asia or developing countries now-a-days. One of the reasons is that there are not many jobs for consulting firm since the Suvarnabhumi international airport construction finished. Moreover, the globalization of international construction markets provides tremendous opportunities for consultants to expand into new foreign markets by allowing local firms to compete internationally (Construction Industry Institute CII, 1993). International projects involve not only the uncertainties that arise in domestic construction projects, but also those from the complex risks that are particular to international transactions (Lee and Walters, 1989: Hill International, 1995). Not only domestic/local projects but also international/oversea projects, risks associated with different projects are paramount. In the context of doing business successfully in local and international construction markets, consulting engineering firms need reliable risk analysis, risks reduction or mitigation strategies and decision making tools to make consistent strategic Go/No-go or take/not-take entry decisions.
Go/No-go decisions by consulting engineering firms are very complex due to the risk and uncertainty about many factors. Not only in local markets but also in international markets, risks have to be considered clearly before making go/no go decisions to the projects. No clear rules can be found in considering go/no-go decisions. In this problem domain, decisions are commonly made based upon intuition and past experience. If consultants make wrong decisions, they have to face a large loss in term of time, cost and other resources. Once appropriate go-decisions are made, consultants would get expected profit, potential projects, relationship etc.
Ms. Nang Kham Kyi Oo made a research which aimed to solve those problems by risk management, such as risk identification, risk analysis and risks reduction or mitigation strategies. The importance of risk factors that are concerned with go/no go decision making will be identified and evaluated, and then the importance of those risk factors on the profitability or consultant fee will be discussed. Then the risks reduction strategies will be identified and their effectiveness to local and international projects will be found.
The objectives of her research are: (1) to identify the major risk factors associated with local/domestic and international/oversea projects when making go/no-go decisions and the major risks factors affecting the profitability of a consulting engineering firm; (2) to rank the importance of the identified factors on go/no go decision making and on profitability; and (3) to identify the risk reduction or mitigation strategies being used in industry and determine the effectiveness of those factors on local/domestic and international/oversea projects.
Conclusion
The conclusion of this research based on the work carried out and the result of analysis are shown in figures in brief.
According to analysis, figure 1, the top five risks considered as important by Thai consulting firms before taking a project within Thailand are as follows. 1) Client’s cash flow, 2) impractical designs, 3) incorrect & insufficient design information, 4) lack of skilled staff and 5) current workload. Consulting firms can prepare to manage risks if they know which factors are most important in real life. Thus, design risk (risk 2 and 3) is very important.
Profit is the live blood for every consulting firm. But there are many factors that can reduce profit. Sometimes consultants do not know which factors must take in first priority. Figure 1 shows the top five risks affecting profitability in domestic projects. They are 1) Client’s cash flow, 2) unreasonable time, 3) payment schedule, 4) enough resources and lack of skilled staff. Knowing those factors which are affecting their profitability, firms can find the way to reduce the impact of the risks and can increase their profit absolutely.
Figure 1 also shows the effectiveness of top five risk mitigation strategies in domestic projects that can reduce the impact of risks considered in decision making and profitability for Thai consulting engineering firms. To diminish the impact of those risks, there are six risk mitigation factors considered as most effective for consulting firms. Not only these five mitigation factors, but also all factors have their own effectiveness. Therefore, consulting firms should assign mitigation factors and should practice as possible as they afford.
International/Overseas Projects
In figure 2, the top five risks considered by Thai consulting firms before handling international projects are shown. The importance indexes of each risk are calculated and rank in terms of the highest indexes. According to the result after analysis, most of risks are to be considered as important. Consulting firms should do risk management carefully before entering international consulting markets.
Similar to the top five risks considered in making go/no-go decision, most of risks are measured as important risks affecting profitability. All factors in domestic projects are included in international projects. The detailed are shown in figure 2. Not only these factors but also other uncountable risks are essential for international projects. Consulting firms must always aware the factors that can make their profit low down and find to increase the intensity of profit.
Figure 2 shows top risk mitigation strategies in international projects that can reduce the impact of risks considered to engineering consulting firms. As there are many risks involved in international practices, most of them are important to be considered. As discussed earlier, the sample size for international projects is quite small. Moreover international projects are more risky than local projects. Therefore, most mitigation factors are given high scores and considered to have the same effectiveness. As per figure 2, five mitigation factors are for design risks, four are for technical risks, four are for project risks, and two factors in cultural risks, one each are for economic risk and client risk. In conclusion, most mitigation strategies are effective for Thai consulting firms doing projects outside Thailand. Consulting firms should be careful in considering risks before accepting projects in order not to make wrong decisions that may affect their profitability adversely.
Moreover, most Thai consulting engineering firms are finding international projects especially in Southern Asia or developing countries now-a-days. One of the reasons is that there are not many jobs for consulting firm since the Suvarnabhumi international airport construction finished. Moreover, the globalization of international construction markets provides tremendous opportunities for consultants to expand into new foreign markets by allowing local firms to compete internationally (Construction Industry Institute CII, 1993). International projects involve not only the uncertainties that arise in domestic construction projects, but also those from the complex risks that are particular to international transactions (Lee and Walters, 1989: Hill International, 1995). Not only domestic/local projects but also international/oversea projects, risks associated with different projects are paramount. In the context of doing business successfully in local and international construction markets, consulting engineering firms need reliable risk analysis, risks reduction or mitigation strategies and decision making tools to make consistent strategic Go/No-go or take/not-take entry decisions.
Go/No-go decisions by consulting engineering firms are very complex due to the risk and uncertainty about many factors. Not only in local markets but also in international markets, risks have to be considered clearly before making go/no go decisions to the projects. No clear rules can be found in considering go/no-go decisions. In this problem domain, decisions are commonly made based upon intuition and past experience. If consultants make wrong decisions, they have to face a large loss in term of time, cost and other resources. Once appropriate go-decisions are made, consultants would get expected profit, potential projects, relationship etc.
Ms. Nang Kham Kyi Oo made a research which aimed to solve those problems by risk management, such as risk identification, risk analysis and risks reduction or mitigation strategies. The importance of risk factors that are concerned with go/no go decision making will be identified and evaluated, and then the importance of those risk factors on the profitability or consultant fee will be discussed. Then the risks reduction strategies will be identified and their effectiveness to local and international projects will be found.
The objectives of her research are: (1) to identify the major risk factors associated with local/domestic and international/oversea projects when making go/no-go decisions and the major risks factors affecting the profitability of a consulting engineering firm; (2) to rank the importance of the identified factors on go/no go decision making and on profitability; and (3) to identify the risk reduction or mitigation strategies being used in industry and determine the effectiveness of those factors on local/domestic and international/oversea projects.
Conclusion
The conclusion of this research based on the work carried out and the result of analysis are shown in figures in brief.
According to analysis, figure 1, the top five risks considered as important by Thai consulting firms before taking a project within Thailand are as follows. 1) Client’s cash flow, 2) impractical designs, 3) incorrect & insufficient design information, 4) lack of skilled staff and 5) current workload. Consulting firms can prepare to manage risks if they know which factors are most important in real life. Thus, design risk (risk 2 and 3) is very important.
Profit is the live blood for every consulting firm. But there are many factors that can reduce profit. Sometimes consultants do not know which factors must take in first priority. Figure 1 shows the top five risks affecting profitability in domestic projects. They are 1) Client’s cash flow, 2) unreasonable time, 3) payment schedule, 4) enough resources and lack of skilled staff. Knowing those factors which are affecting their profitability, firms can find the way to reduce the impact of the risks and can increase their profit absolutely.
Figure 1 also shows the effectiveness of top five risk mitigation strategies in domestic projects that can reduce the impact of risks considered in decision making and profitability for Thai consulting engineering firms. To diminish the impact of those risks, there are six risk mitigation factors considered as most effective for consulting firms. Not only these five mitigation factors, but also all factors have their own effectiveness. Therefore, consulting firms should assign mitigation factors and should practice as possible as they afford.
International/Overseas Projects
In figure 2, the top five risks considered by Thai consulting firms before handling international projects are shown. The importance indexes of each risk are calculated and rank in terms of the highest indexes. According to the result after analysis, most of risks are to be considered as important. Consulting firms should do risk management carefully before entering international consulting markets.
Similar to the top five risks considered in making go/no-go decision, most of risks are measured as important risks affecting profitability. All factors in domestic projects are included in international projects. The detailed are shown in figure 2. Not only these factors but also other uncountable risks are essential for international projects. Consulting firms must always aware the factors that can make their profit low down and find to increase the intensity of profit.
Figure 2 shows top risk mitigation strategies in international projects that can reduce the impact of risks considered to engineering consulting firms. As there are many risks involved in international practices, most of them are important to be considered. As discussed earlier, the sample size for international projects is quite small. Moreover international projects are more risky than local projects. Therefore, most mitigation factors are given high scores and considered to have the same effectiveness. As per figure 2, five mitigation factors are for design risks, four are for technical risks, four are for project risks, and two factors in cultural risks, one each are for economic risk and client risk. In conclusion, most mitigation strategies are effective for Thai consulting firms doing projects outside Thailand. Consulting firms should be careful in considering risks before accepting projects in order not to make wrong decisions that may affect their profitability adversely.
Her thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
It is very crucial for Thai consulting engineering firms making take/do not take or go/no-go decisions to on projects not only for domestic/local but also for international/overseas projects. The reason is that there are a lot of risks involved in both local and oversea projects. Due to reduced demand in the Thai consulting environment, most large Thai consulting firms are venturing to overseas markets. However small and medium sized Thai consulting firms are still in local markets. Because of low demand and much competition, they have to accept lower consultant fee and it will affect their profitability. They accept a project with low profit because they need to work; need to retain the staff and for the company itself. Consequently, companies face a lot of risks when deciding whether or not to handle a project. This research aimed to help Thai consulting firms in making decisions before accepting projects by approaching risk identification (knowing which factors is most important) and risk mitigation strategies (how to reduce the impact of risks).
To achieve the objectives of the study, risks were divided into nine main categories with sub-risk factors under each main category for identification of the important factors for making decisions and the important factors affecting profitability. To reduce those factors, risk mitigation strategies are suggested for the nine main risk categories. Statistical hypothesis was done using the T-test to find out the differences in perception among two groups: Thai consulting firms doing only local projects and those doing both local and oversea projects. For this purpose, questionnaire survey was done on managing directors, board of directors, upper level management and engineers. Moreover, interviews were also conducted with three large consulting firms to know the detailed opinion and ideas.
Since the sample of consulting firms involved in oversea projects is quite small, detailed discussions for oversea project was not done. According to the importance indexes, top five risk factors and top five risk mitigation strategies considered to be most important when handling local projects are discussed in detailed. Moreover, the hypothesis was tested and showed that there are four significant factors considered in making decision, six significant factors affecting profitability and five significant factors for effectiveness in mitigation strategies among the two groups.
ABSTRACT
It is very crucial for Thai consulting engineering firms making take/do not take or go/no-go decisions to on projects not only for domestic/local but also for international/overseas projects. The reason is that there are a lot of risks involved in both local and oversea projects. Due to reduced demand in the Thai consulting environment, most large Thai consulting firms are venturing to overseas markets. However small and medium sized Thai consulting firms are still in local markets. Because of low demand and much competition, they have to accept lower consultant fee and it will affect their profitability. They accept a project with low profit because they need to work; need to retain the staff and for the company itself. Consequently, companies face a lot of risks when deciding whether or not to handle a project. This research aimed to help Thai consulting firms in making decisions before accepting projects by approaching risk identification (knowing which factors is most important) and risk mitigation strategies (how to reduce the impact of risks).
To achieve the objectives of the study, risks were divided into nine main categories with sub-risk factors under each main category for identification of the important factors for making decisions and the important factors affecting profitability. To reduce those factors, risk mitigation strategies are suggested for the nine main risk categories. Statistical hypothesis was done using the T-test to find out the differences in perception among two groups: Thai consulting firms doing only local projects and those doing both local and oversea projects. For this purpose, questionnaire survey was done on managing directors, board of directors, upper level management and engineers. Moreover, interviews were also conducted with three large consulting firms to know the detailed opinion and ideas.
Since the sample of consulting firms involved in oversea projects is quite small, detailed discussions for oversea project was not done. According to the importance indexes, top five risk factors and top five risk mitigation strategies considered to be most important when handling local projects are discussed in detailed. Moreover, the hypothesis was tested and showed that there are four significant factors considered in making decision, six significant factors affecting profitability and five significant factors for effectiveness in mitigation strategies among the two groups.
Tuesday, 12 January 2010
Technology Selection Practices In Building Construction Projects Through The Perspectives Of Design Consultants
Choosing the right type of technology to integrate into a building design is not an easy task and any miscalculations or incorrect selections can lead to increased energy costs, lower that average outputs, and insufficient amount of services or comfort for users. Problems in decision making are most notable in design phase for new construction where designers attempt to match building & product specifications, and installation phase for existing buildings.
This is categorized into 4 contexts, where the choice between using new technology and existing technology runs a thin line, more often than not, determined by architects & engineering consultants through Costs, Quality and Brand name of technology (Tuominen, 2001);
- Conceptual design
- Schematic detailing
- Design development stages
- Existing conditions for technology installation in building (requirements & performance),
This narrows a building designs scope that doesn’t allow for embracing different brand name products which may or may not provide better functions and services.
A recognized feature of building design practice is the need to make Changes to previous aspects of design as process continues. Iteration is often used where earlier details at one level must be adjusted or changed when more detailed issues are addressed, and when these changes in design occur there is often the need for change in technology specifications to meet the new design details.
Only in standardized design situations can effective technology selection and procurement be done without back tracking or making changes, such as in residential building and hotels (Garud, 1997).
In retrospect, preliminary meetings between myself and Architects & Engineers from design firms based in Bangkok, Thailand, has revealed that “Many Designers choose Technology products from suppliers and manufacturers whom they have a good working relationship with, or have used their technology in past projects”. It was also revealed that Designers in the construction industry are reluctant to embrace new suppliers or manufacturers in the market, as their products are untested for success or failure in construction projects and there is high risk in embracing these new technologies.
As mentioned previously, the development of technology for buildings and infrastructures has become one of the fastest growing markets in today’s economy, with multitude of products becoming more increasingly available to clients, designers and the general public alike. With this choice and availability comes the most commonly asked question in technology selection: Which One?
In today’s markets, Costs and Brand name alone cannot be seen as good measures for technology selection. A wide range of parameters must be considered, some of which include product lifecycle, maintenance and spare parts, certification and governmental standards, etc. Therefore, taking all these parameter into account, the problem becomes apparent;
“There is a need for suitable Decision-making & Selection Methods / Techniques for choosing the most appropriate M&E building technology systems for any one given construction project.”
In addressing the problem of choosing the right type of technology for any building project, and considering all factors which affect technology design & development, Mr. James Suvanaphen made a research which the core objectives were to: (1) investigate Current Technology selection practices in the construction industry; (2) design a Process & Decision model portraying an efficient selection technique; and (3) examine effectiveness of both models from its use by a Design professional.
To assess the success or failure of the both Process & Decision model on a Design project by way of Survey feedback on its usefulness from potential users, i.e.; Architects and Engineers.
This study focused on the trends of current technology in Building construction, looks at its usage compared with existing technology, and attempts to portray an efficient technique in technology selection for the benefit of any one construction project, in terms of financial costs, innovation, procurement and sustainability.
One of the main purposes of supplementing the Process model is to create guidelines for Consultants in selecting M&E equipment for various Building projects, through development of a Technology Comparator; a technology awareness tool that consultants can use to determine feasibility of using different M&E technologies in projects by looking at parameters such as design, functions, procurement, etc (This term is later referenced as the Decision Model)
Outcome of Model implementation in the Construction industry
The final analysis of this research study involves examining the feasibility of both the Process & Decision model when used by Architects and Engineers in the Construction Industry of Thailand. This analysis is concurrent with the 3rd objective of CHP 1 to examine model effectiveness. To start off, one copy of both the Process & Decision models were sent to an Architectural design consultants firm* based in Thailand for their use and assessment**.
The models were sent in late March 2007 and feedback was received towards the end of April 2007. This feedback came in the form of a written statement from the firm, as an overview of the opinions of many of their Architects regarding the feasibility of both models. It should be noted at this point that both models were not fully used by the Architects due to the lengthy process time it takes to implement the use of the models, and the short assessment time of this analysis. A summary of this feedback statement is presented below;
In evaluation of both models, it was discovered that not everyone at the Architectural firm was keen to use a Decision model as they may see it as a relatively time consuming exercise rather than a measurement tool. However, it was also relayed that the Architects were keener to use the Process model because it shows the selection process from a broader perspective and visualizes “the big picture” in technology selection. They had commented that the Process model in itself portrayed an effective selection technique which, given more time, they would like to use on their projects.
In regards to the Decision model, some positive comments were made about the model as portraying a clear view of the selection process, similar to the Process model. However, other comments relayed that the technology selection chart used a rather crude method of assigning values, and there were suggestions of using a more precise numerical rating method, such as Fuzzy sets. Nonetheless, it was stated in the objectives of this study that the chart would portray a simple calculation method that everyone would understand.
It was also discovered that the lead & response time from Building services contractor in reviewing and selecting appropriate suppliers was taking too much time, and may cause minor delays in the long run of using the models. However the firm also stressed that it is Building services contractors who were more qualified to select these suppliers as they had or would have to work with them in inspecting, installing and commissioning all building technology products
One final piece of information that was conveyed during this final analysis from the Architectural firm was that in the Building technology industry, hindsight had led them to believe that the one method that Architects and Engineers use the most to select their technology products is their experience with past products and suppliers. This is because they had successfully used technology in past projects and feel that they can rely on this same technology or suppliers for use in their new projects. The firm assumed that people involved in the selection process would be unwilling to try new technology products that are released into the market as there is a high risk involved, from not knowing if the new product can be successful in new projects or not.
*: This Architectural firm reserved the right to remain anonymous during this final analysis.
**: A similar copy of both models was sent to an M&E engineering consultants firm in Thailand as well, however no feedback was received in time to convey a final assessment from their point of view. Therefore their inclusion in this evaluation had to be voided under these circumstances.
Discussion
The models proposed in this Research study are basically attempts to simplify and organize the Technology product & Supplier selection process. It matches considerations which are important to decision makers who need to make selection decisions. Since decision makers should be directly involved with the selection process at each of its stages, support tools (either manual or computer based) may be essential to implement any single technique used, and the models leaves the choice of components or parameters to be used in any of these techniques up to the decision makers. This generic approach also allows each component or parameter chosen to be integrated into a decision support system which provides far better and more acceptable selections than those which can be generated by any single technique discussed throughout this Research study. Because of the concept of using “stages”, it is possible to eliminate certain stages if the model user finds it more efficient to do so. It is suggested to users that after their first application of the models, strategy development and component or parameter selection need only be reviewed as required, and not every time a new technology system is re-considered. Also, Technology screening is discretionary since it is used only to reduce the number of Products in the selection stage. This may not be needed if the number of Products is small or if there are interdependencies among all the Products being considered.
Conclusion
This research study addressed the current problems facing Architects and Engineers in the selection of suitable Building Technology products for any Construction project, and attempts to suggest many solutions to alleviate these problems. These solutions initially come in the form of 2 generic models based on current technology components & parameters used in the industry. However, in the end the choice of Technology product ultimately rests with the client, being the governing body that is investing in a project, therefore they dictate how their money is spent. The only thing that Architects and Engineers can really do regarding Technology selection is advise the clients and make potable suggestions as best as they could.
But this does not mean that the process of Technology selection should be taken for granted. As shown throughout this research study, technology selection techniques are essential in providing the most efficient measurement & awareness tool to get the most suitable machines and equipment there is for a building project. Current issues surrounding technology selection such as energy saving, sustainability and alternative energy sources are being addressed at the economic global level, and will affect the way a supplier designs and manufactures their product. It is hoped that the research and solutions presented in this study will help all parties involved in making the right choice in technology selection, both now and in the future.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
This Research Study aimed to examine the impact of Supplier selection on Building technology selection in a Construction project, and the outcome of comparing one technology product against another to assist Architects and Engineers in making the correct choices in the selection and decision making process. In doing so, its main objective was to design potent models which could be applied to the technology selection process and used accordingly.
In this Research study, details regarding the current industry practices of the UK and Thailand were analyzed to form models of the current techniques being used today. A survey of Architects and Engineers was also conducted to gather more information and data straight from design professionals in the field of Building technology. This survey took the form of interview and questionnaires with professionals in the UK and Thailand.
Analysis of all these data resulted in extracting components and parameters for use in the design process of a Supplier selection and Technology comparison model as mentioned above. These models were then supplied to an Architectural firm for their use and assessment of its feasibility as an efficient measurement tool.
This is categorized into 4 contexts, where the choice between using new technology and existing technology runs a thin line, more often than not, determined by architects & engineering consultants through Costs, Quality and Brand name of technology (Tuominen, 2001);
- Conceptual design
- Schematic detailing
- Design development stages
- Existing conditions for technology installation in building (requirements & performance),
This narrows a building designs scope that doesn’t allow for embracing different brand name products which may or may not provide better functions and services.
A recognized feature of building design practice is the need to make Changes to previous aspects of design as process continues. Iteration is often used where earlier details at one level must be adjusted or changed when more detailed issues are addressed, and when these changes in design occur there is often the need for change in technology specifications to meet the new design details.
Only in standardized design situations can effective technology selection and procurement be done without back tracking or making changes, such as in residential building and hotels (Garud, 1997).
In retrospect, preliminary meetings between myself and Architects & Engineers from design firms based in Bangkok, Thailand, has revealed that “Many Designers choose Technology products from suppliers and manufacturers whom they have a good working relationship with, or have used their technology in past projects”. It was also revealed that Designers in the construction industry are reluctant to embrace new suppliers or manufacturers in the market, as their products are untested for success or failure in construction projects and there is high risk in embracing these new technologies.
As mentioned previously, the development of technology for buildings and infrastructures has become one of the fastest growing markets in today’s economy, with multitude of products becoming more increasingly available to clients, designers and the general public alike. With this choice and availability comes the most commonly asked question in technology selection: Which One?
In today’s markets, Costs and Brand name alone cannot be seen as good measures for technology selection. A wide range of parameters must be considered, some of which include product lifecycle, maintenance and spare parts, certification and governmental standards, etc. Therefore, taking all these parameter into account, the problem becomes apparent;
“There is a need for suitable Decision-making & Selection Methods / Techniques for choosing the most appropriate M&E building technology systems for any one given construction project.”
In addressing the problem of choosing the right type of technology for any building project, and considering all factors which affect technology design & development, Mr. James Suvanaphen made a research which the core objectives were to: (1) investigate Current Technology selection practices in the construction industry; (2) design a Process & Decision model portraying an efficient selection technique; and (3) examine effectiveness of both models from its use by a Design professional.
To assess the success or failure of the both Process & Decision model on a Design project by way of Survey feedback on its usefulness from potential users, i.e.; Architects and Engineers.
This study focused on the trends of current technology in Building construction, looks at its usage compared with existing technology, and attempts to portray an efficient technique in technology selection for the benefit of any one construction project, in terms of financial costs, innovation, procurement and sustainability.
One of the main purposes of supplementing the Process model is to create guidelines for Consultants in selecting M&E equipment for various Building projects, through development of a Technology Comparator; a technology awareness tool that consultants can use to determine feasibility of using different M&E technologies in projects by looking at parameters such as design, functions, procurement, etc (This term is later referenced as the Decision Model)
Outcome of Model implementation in the Construction industry
The final analysis of this research study involves examining the feasibility of both the Process & Decision model when used by Architects and Engineers in the Construction Industry of Thailand. This analysis is concurrent with the 3rd objective of CHP 1 to examine model effectiveness. To start off, one copy of both the Process & Decision models were sent to an Architectural design consultants firm* based in Thailand for their use and assessment**.
The models were sent in late March 2007 and feedback was received towards the end of April 2007. This feedback came in the form of a written statement from the firm, as an overview of the opinions of many of their Architects regarding the feasibility of both models. It should be noted at this point that both models were not fully used by the Architects due to the lengthy process time it takes to implement the use of the models, and the short assessment time of this analysis. A summary of this feedback statement is presented below;
In evaluation of both models, it was discovered that not everyone at the Architectural firm was keen to use a Decision model as they may see it as a relatively time consuming exercise rather than a measurement tool. However, it was also relayed that the Architects were keener to use the Process model because it shows the selection process from a broader perspective and visualizes “the big picture” in technology selection. They had commented that the Process model in itself portrayed an effective selection technique which, given more time, they would like to use on their projects.
In regards to the Decision model, some positive comments were made about the model as portraying a clear view of the selection process, similar to the Process model. However, other comments relayed that the technology selection chart used a rather crude method of assigning values, and there were suggestions of using a more precise numerical rating method, such as Fuzzy sets. Nonetheless, it was stated in the objectives of this study that the chart would portray a simple calculation method that everyone would understand.
It was also discovered that the lead & response time from Building services contractor in reviewing and selecting appropriate suppliers was taking too much time, and may cause minor delays in the long run of using the models. However the firm also stressed that it is Building services contractors who were more qualified to select these suppliers as they had or would have to work with them in inspecting, installing and commissioning all building technology products
One final piece of information that was conveyed during this final analysis from the Architectural firm was that in the Building technology industry, hindsight had led them to believe that the one method that Architects and Engineers use the most to select their technology products is their experience with past products and suppliers. This is because they had successfully used technology in past projects and feel that they can rely on this same technology or suppliers for use in their new projects. The firm assumed that people involved in the selection process would be unwilling to try new technology products that are released into the market as there is a high risk involved, from not knowing if the new product can be successful in new projects or not.
*: This Architectural firm reserved the right to remain anonymous during this final analysis.
**: A similar copy of both models was sent to an M&E engineering consultants firm in Thailand as well, however no feedback was received in time to convey a final assessment from their point of view. Therefore their inclusion in this evaluation had to be voided under these circumstances.
Discussion
The models proposed in this Research study are basically attempts to simplify and organize the Technology product & Supplier selection process. It matches considerations which are important to decision makers who need to make selection decisions. Since decision makers should be directly involved with the selection process at each of its stages, support tools (either manual or computer based) may be essential to implement any single technique used, and the models leaves the choice of components or parameters to be used in any of these techniques up to the decision makers. This generic approach also allows each component or parameter chosen to be integrated into a decision support system which provides far better and more acceptable selections than those which can be generated by any single technique discussed throughout this Research study. Because of the concept of using “stages”, it is possible to eliminate certain stages if the model user finds it more efficient to do so. It is suggested to users that after their first application of the models, strategy development and component or parameter selection need only be reviewed as required, and not every time a new technology system is re-considered. Also, Technology screening is discretionary since it is used only to reduce the number of Products in the selection stage. This may not be needed if the number of Products is small or if there are interdependencies among all the Products being considered.
Conclusion
This research study addressed the current problems facing Architects and Engineers in the selection of suitable Building Technology products for any Construction project, and attempts to suggest many solutions to alleviate these problems. These solutions initially come in the form of 2 generic models based on current technology components & parameters used in the industry. However, in the end the choice of Technology product ultimately rests with the client, being the governing body that is investing in a project, therefore they dictate how their money is spent. The only thing that Architects and Engineers can really do regarding Technology selection is advise the clients and make potable suggestions as best as they could.
But this does not mean that the process of Technology selection should be taken for granted. As shown throughout this research study, technology selection techniques are essential in providing the most efficient measurement & awareness tool to get the most suitable machines and equipment there is for a building project. Current issues surrounding technology selection such as energy saving, sustainability and alternative energy sources are being addressed at the economic global level, and will affect the way a supplier designs and manufactures their product. It is hoped that the research and solutions presented in this study will help all parties involved in making the right choice in technology selection, both now and in the future.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
This Research Study aimed to examine the impact of Supplier selection on Building technology selection in a Construction project, and the outcome of comparing one technology product against another to assist Architects and Engineers in making the correct choices in the selection and decision making process. In doing so, its main objective was to design potent models which could be applied to the technology selection process and used accordingly.
In this Research study, details regarding the current industry practices of the UK and Thailand were analyzed to form models of the current techniques being used today. A survey of Architects and Engineers was also conducted to gather more information and data straight from design professionals in the field of Building technology. This survey took the form of interview and questionnaires with professionals in the UK and Thailand.
Analysis of all these data resulted in extracting components and parameters for use in the design process of a Supplier selection and Technology comparison model as mentioned above. These models were then supplied to an Architectural firm for their use and assessment of its feasibility as an efficient measurement tool.
Monday, 11 January 2010
Professional Masters in Project Management and CEIM Graduation Photo
Dear All
MPM2 Vung Tau, MPM2 HCM, MPM1 Hanoi and PETRAIT and CEIM programs finally received their degree in December 2009 in AIT Main Campus Thailand.
Everybody look very happy in the photo.
Congratulations!
The name of the graduants and project case study topic:
Name - Thesis or Project Case Study Title
Nguyen Van Tam - Claims in Building Project in Public Sector ; Case Study in Mekong Area, Vietnam.
Karma Gyamtsho - Collaboratie Strategy Between Stakeholders of Hydropower and Power Intensive Industry in Bhutan.
Sonam Tobgay - Construction Claim Types and Causes: A Study of Tala Hydroelectric Project, Bhutan.
Willy Sanjaya - The Characteristics of Innovative Construction Project: A Study in Thailand Construction Industry.
Andi Sanjaya - Strategy in Working Capital Management under Adverse Economic Condition: A Case Study of Indoesia Construction SMEs.
Dang Dinh Lam - Design Management for Architectual Project: A Case Study of PVMTC-Petrovietnam Building Project.
Phan Vu - The delay factors in building construction stage - a case study of office builing in HCMC., Vietnam
Tran Thi Nguyen Cat - THE COMMUNICATION IN DESIGN PROCESS BETWEEN THE EMPLOYERS AND CONSULTANTS
Phan Hong Hoan - Factors causing delay in construction project - a case study of commercial construction project in HCM city
Le Hoai Viet - APPLICATION OF PROJECT MANAGEMENT FUNCTIONS IN SMALL CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES: CASE STUDY OF SMALL CONTRACTORS IN HOCHIMINH CITY
Nguyen Canh Toan - COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT WITHIN CONSTRUCTION PROJECT TEAM: A CASE STUDY OF CONDOMINIUM PROJECT IN HO CHI MINH CITY
Le Khac Bao - The Construction Logistic for pre engineering building (PEB) construction
Bui Van Cuong - PRACTICES OF CONTRACTOR OF SCHEDULE/COST PLANNING AND CONTROL - A CASE STUDY OF RESETTLEMENT HIGH-RISE BUILDING PROJECT IN HO CHI MINH CITY
Nguyen Phong - Matrix structure in small scale & fast track construction project - A case study of fitting out & interior project
Bui Giang Nam - Focus on Fabrication and Erection of Steel Structure
Tran Hong Quan - Project Owner’s Quality Management System – A case study of Estella Residential Development Building Construction Project
Nguyen An Khe - SOME CASE STUDIES COMPARING THE ROLE OF ENGINEER BETWEEN VIETNAMESE AND FIDIC CONTRACT
Hoang Ngoc Anh Focus on Risk in New Urban Infrastructure Development Project
Nguyen Thi Thanh Truc CLAIM MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS CASE STUDY OF HYDROPOWER PLANT
Nguyen Hoang Anh Chuong In New Residential Development Project ; Focus on Cost and Financial Management
Nguyen Huynh Trung Hai GREEN BUILDING : ISSUES, APPROACHES AND IMPLEMENTATION.
Nguyen Duc Hung Project delay in machenical factory construction project
Nguyen Huu Phuc Project Materials Management for Telecom steel Towers erected project in Vietnam
Hoang Don Dung Safety and Quality Management for Construction Temporary Structure with Reference of Construction Regulation and Contract in Vietnam.
Pham Thi Ngoc Hien Cash flow projection management in small – medium sized Vietnamese Contractor
Nguyen Anh Kiet QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN DESIGN PHASE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
Mr.Truong Quang Dien Delays in construction project in Vietnam, causes and effects
Mr. Hoang Huu Cam A case study of delay in commissioning actitvity of Phu My Gas Distribution Center Project, Vietnam
Mr. Tran Dang Thuyet Owner’s EPCI Contract Management for Oil and Gas Development Projects – A Case Study of Vietnam Oil and Gas Project
Mr. Pham Xuan Thinh Some main factors affecting quality of construction projects- A case study of Expanding phase III port – Petroleum technical service base in Vung Tau, Vietnam
Mr. Le Van Thong Quality management in construction project
Mr. Do Van Hanh Contract management-how owner can responsible to change order in Oil and gas project management
Ms. Pham Thi Thuy Giang Subcontractor management of pipeline construction project
Mr. Phan Tuong Liem Engineering, procurement, construction (Epc)contract management- Case study: epc contract management for rang dong full field development block 15-2 offshore vietnam
Mr. Tran Tuan Binh Quality Management and soil improvement of PVMPC
Mr. Nguyen Sinh Khang Owner's Project cost management approach: A Case study of underground oil storage cavern project in Vietnam.
Mr. Dang Viet Cuong "FACTORS INFLUENCING TO BENEFIT OF PROJECT
A CASE STUDY OF PETROVIETNAM HOTEL
COMPLEX PROJECT"
Ms. Pham Minh Nga "Integration of Gas Gathering System in Oil Field Development Project
A solution for Offshore Oil Field Early Development - CASE STUDY: GAS PIPELINE SYSTEM FOR BLOCK 16-1 TGT FIELD &
15-2/1 HST – HSD FIELD DEVELOPMENT
"
Mr. Nguyen Dinh Duong DELAYING CAUSES IN SUB-PROJECTS OF THE HO CHI MINH NATIONAL HIGHWAY CONSTRUCTION PROJECT
Mr. Tran Dang Manh Customer-driven strategy and KPIs using CRM approach- a case study of construction enterprises in Vietnam
Mr. Bui Tien Dung "CONTRACT CLAUSES IN EPC thermal power PROJECTS - A CASE STUDY OF Hai phong thermal power PROJECT
"
Mr. Pham Quoc Hung QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM FOR MANUFACTURER AND CONTRACTOR OF PRE-CAST PILE FOUNDATION
Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Huong DELAY CAUSES IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE REFINERY PROJECTS IN VIETNAM– A CASE STUDY ON THE DUNG QUAT REFINERY PROJECT.
Mr. Vu Dinh Duy "CONTRACT CLAUSES IN EPC CONTRACT - A CASE STUDY OF DINH VU POLYESTER PROJECT, HAI PHONG, VIETNAM
"
Mr. Le Tu Anh "MARINE FACILITY DESIGN AND ITS IMPACT TO PROJECT COST IN
REFINERY PROJECT -A CASE STUDY OF NGHI SON REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX PROJECT
"
Mr. Dinh Van Ngu "MANAGING THE PRECOMMISSIONING AND
COMMISSIONING PHASE IN EPC CONTRACT
A CASE STUDY OF DUNG QUAT REFINERY PROJECT, QUANG NGAI, Vietnam
"
Regards
Hadikusumo
Analysis Of The Dynamic Behavior Of Office Building Demand And Supply
The 2000’s have claimed as the most fluctuated decade of the Thailand’s real estate economic as well as overall economic. Before 1997, the Capital Companies go abroad to do the road show exhibition and bring back a lot of money to the country. This situation created the economic that the academician called “Bubble Economy” (The economic that speculates the profit is more than the fundamental economic). This Bubble Economy encouraged the Real Estate Market to have highest growth, the land and stock price went up also with the loan interest rate. Thai people expended money more than usual (Thai people expend money around 10% of GDP).
From GDP graph the Bubble Economy can stay for a while. So in the early 1996 the problems of the economic happen, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the country reduce 8.2% because of the principal’s enlargement. Institutional Investor Magazine, Standard & Poor's, Fitch And Moody's reduce the credit rank of Thailand from A to Ba1 that make untruth to the foreign investors. The foreign investors withdraw the capital from Thailand (call the loan back to their country) that effect to the Real Estate Economic. So in the late 1996, the foreign companies didn’t give any loan to Thailand that made the Financial Institution be illiquid. Finally, 1997 the Bubble Economy was broken and the real estate market was dead end. Thailand came to the economic crisis and the economic went to down turn.
(Source: Institutional Investor Magazine, Standard & Poor's, Fitch And Moody's, 1997)
In 2000 the government tried to recover the economic by using the public finance strategy to stimulate the economic. The strategy effect on the interest rate of the loan because the government wanted to reduce the interest to activate the economic and reduce the debt responsibility of the government. The interest rate reduce from 15.25 - 15.50% to 11.50 - 12.00% in the end of 1999 and 8.25 - 8.50% and 8.00 - 8.50% in March 2000. Because of the low interest rate of loan the investors tried to invest in the economic again and help the economic went up. When the economic went up the real estate economic was come to the up turn also. But the up turn didn’t take a long time.
In 2006, the Government Housing bank does the research “The model to predict the trend of the real estate in Thailand”. That research indicate that the demand of the people who live in Thailand in any kind and prize of the real estate is 257,130 units in 2003 and has trend to increase to 294,966 in 2007. The supply of the real estate in 2003 is 207,575 units. So in 2000-2005, the real estate market is stay at up turn. Although the demand is going up but the research indicates that after 2006 the real estate market will be saturated because of the problem in the overall economic again due to the oil prize and the political aspects.
(Source: Government Housing Bank, 2006)
From the information we can see that the real estate in 2000’s decade was fluctuated and hardly to predict combined with the rarely system analysis of the overall office market in the past researches. In order to understand and predict the trend of the Real Estate and office market Economic, it is important to develop the factor and economic model of the real estate economic. The model is in the form of a computer simulation which employs the conceptual framework and methodology of “System Dynamics,” developed by Jay W. Forrester in the 1960’s at the Sloan School of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model can be used as a forecasting tool in various assumption and factor such as, interest rate, political and macroeconomic.
Mr. Apinun Tantiviriyapan made a research which aim was to solve the problems. His objectives were as follows: (1) to identify the factors that affect the office market; (2) to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram; and (3) to develop the System Dynamic Model of the Office market Economic
Conclusions
The objective of this modeling exercise was firstly to understand the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous parameters affecting the change of Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building. Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building, Supply of Office Building, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Consumption Expenditure, Investment, Net Export, Cost of Material, Cost of Labor and Rental Prize are the primary focused variables within the economic boundary. Secondly, to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram. From the relation historical data was use to develop relative equation at each main component.
Change Gross Domestic Product is affected by Demand of Office Building, Supply of Office Building and Net Export. Demand of Office Building affects Gross Domestic Product in positive way same as Supply of Office Building and Net Export.
Change in Demand of Office Building is affected by Investment, Consumption Expenditure and Government Spending – Tax. Investment, Consumption Expenditure and Government Spending – Tax have positive relation to Change in Demand of Office Building.
Change in Supply of Office Building is affected by Cost of Labor, Cost of Material and Rental Prize. Rental Prize plays a positive relation to Change in Supply of Office Building but Cost of Labor and Cost of Material play a negative relation to Change in Supply of Office Building.
Economic Condition is measure in term of historical data index. This model structure is based on the literature reviews and the information gathered from the interview conducted with the different parties namely Office Development and Contractor Companies and Academic Institution.
Finally, a dynamic simulation mode was build to represent the perceived mode was built by using the system dynamic methodology. Simulation describes the current behavior and the inferred future. From the result of the simulation, we can develop the pattern of main components and conduct several test to ensure the result.
Several tests such as Unit Consistency Test, Boundary Test and Sensibility test was brought to develop the confidence of the result compare to the real world. The model was applied to the investigation for various components affecting office economic. The simulation trend will give guild line for the investors, developers and contractors to understand the behavior of Office Build Market. This guild line also help in decision making process to make better decision.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
To understand the office economic behavior, Demand, Supply and Gross Domestic Product are main components that should be defined the trend. There are a lot of factors and variables that affect the trend of main components. This research investigates the impact of various components on the Gross Domestic Produce, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building
The objective of this modeling exercise was firstly to understand the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous parameters affecting the change of Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building. Secondly, to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram. Finally, a dynamic simulation mode was build to represent the perceived mode was built by using the system dynamic methodology.
From the result of the simulation, we can develop the pattern of main components that can use as a guild line for the investors, developers and contractors to understand the behavior of Office Building Market. This guideline also helps in decision making process to make better decision.
From GDP graph the Bubble Economy can stay for a while. So in the early 1996 the problems of the economic happen, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of the country reduce 8.2% because of the principal’s enlargement. Institutional Investor Magazine, Standard & Poor's, Fitch And Moody's reduce the credit rank of Thailand from A to Ba1 that make untruth to the foreign investors. The foreign investors withdraw the capital from Thailand (call the loan back to their country) that effect to the Real Estate Economic. So in the late 1996, the foreign companies didn’t give any loan to Thailand that made the Financial Institution be illiquid. Finally, 1997 the Bubble Economy was broken and the real estate market was dead end. Thailand came to the economic crisis and the economic went to down turn.
(Source: Institutional Investor Magazine, Standard & Poor's, Fitch And Moody's, 1997)
In 2000 the government tried to recover the economic by using the public finance strategy to stimulate the economic. The strategy effect on the interest rate of the loan because the government wanted to reduce the interest to activate the economic and reduce the debt responsibility of the government. The interest rate reduce from 15.25 - 15.50% to 11.50 - 12.00% in the end of 1999 and 8.25 - 8.50% and 8.00 - 8.50% in March 2000. Because of the low interest rate of loan the investors tried to invest in the economic again and help the economic went up. When the economic went up the real estate economic was come to the up turn also. But the up turn didn’t take a long time.
In 2006, the Government Housing bank does the research “The model to predict the trend of the real estate in Thailand”. That research indicate that the demand of the people who live in Thailand in any kind and prize of the real estate is 257,130 units in 2003 and has trend to increase to 294,966 in 2007. The supply of the real estate in 2003 is 207,575 units. So in 2000-2005, the real estate market is stay at up turn. Although the demand is going up but the research indicates that after 2006 the real estate market will be saturated because of the problem in the overall economic again due to the oil prize and the political aspects.
(Source: Government Housing Bank, 2006)
From the information we can see that the real estate in 2000’s decade was fluctuated and hardly to predict combined with the rarely system analysis of the overall office market in the past researches. In order to understand and predict the trend of the Real Estate and office market Economic, it is important to develop the factor and economic model of the real estate economic. The model is in the form of a computer simulation which employs the conceptual framework and methodology of “System Dynamics,” developed by Jay W. Forrester in the 1960’s at the Sloan School of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The model can be used as a forecasting tool in various assumption and factor such as, interest rate, political and macroeconomic.
Mr. Apinun Tantiviriyapan made a research which aim was to solve the problems. His objectives were as follows: (1) to identify the factors that affect the office market; (2) to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram; and (3) to develop the System Dynamic Model of the Office market Economic
Conclusions
The objective of this modeling exercise was firstly to understand the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous parameters affecting the change of Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building. Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building, Supply of Office Building, Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Consumption Expenditure, Investment, Net Export, Cost of Material, Cost of Labor and Rental Prize are the primary focused variables within the economic boundary. Secondly, to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram. From the relation historical data was use to develop relative equation at each main component.
Change Gross Domestic Product is affected by Demand of Office Building, Supply of Office Building and Net Export. Demand of Office Building affects Gross Domestic Product in positive way same as Supply of Office Building and Net Export.
Change in Demand of Office Building is affected by Investment, Consumption Expenditure and Government Spending – Tax. Investment, Consumption Expenditure and Government Spending – Tax have positive relation to Change in Demand of Office Building.
Change in Supply of Office Building is affected by Cost of Labor, Cost of Material and Rental Prize. Rental Prize plays a positive relation to Change in Supply of Office Building but Cost of Labor and Cost of Material play a negative relation to Change in Supply of Office Building.
Economic Condition is measure in term of historical data index. This model structure is based on the literature reviews and the information gathered from the interview conducted with the different parties namely Office Development and Contractor Companies and Academic Institution.
Finally, a dynamic simulation mode was build to represent the perceived mode was built by using the system dynamic methodology. Simulation describes the current behavior and the inferred future. From the result of the simulation, we can develop the pattern of main components and conduct several test to ensure the result.
Several tests such as Unit Consistency Test, Boundary Test and Sensibility test was brought to develop the confidence of the result compare to the real world. The model was applied to the investigation for various components affecting office economic. The simulation trend will give guild line for the investors, developers and contractors to understand the behavior of Office Build Market. This guild line also help in decision making process to make better decision.
His thesis abstract is copied and posted.
ABSTRACT
To understand the office economic behavior, Demand, Supply and Gross Domestic Product are main components that should be defined the trend. There are a lot of factors and variables that affect the trend of main components. This research investigates the impact of various components on the Gross Domestic Produce, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building
The objective of this modeling exercise was firstly to understand the mechanism of various endogenous and exogenous parameters affecting the change of Gross Domestic Product, Demand of Office Building and Supply of Office Building. Secondly, to identify the relationship between those factors and between factors to the office market economic and generate causal loop diagram. Finally, a dynamic simulation mode was build to represent the perceived mode was built by using the system dynamic methodology.
From the result of the simulation, we can develop the pattern of main components that can use as a guild line for the investors, developers and contractors to understand the behavior of Office Building Market. This guideline also helps in decision making process to make better decision.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)