Since Vietnam joined
the WTO (1/2007), it fully entered international integration. According to the foreign
investment inflow to Vietnam, a lot of multinational enterprises were established
and opened the prospects of office and retail area for lease. Many businesses invested
in real estate in the past. Thus, a supply of leasable sector has increased sharply
for two years and became saturated. Actually, it is too difficult when Vietnam
is influenced by crisis of the world economy which leads to a lower growth of
domestic economy, high inflation, and tight monetary policy. Business reduces
the operation scale, the investors limit expansion, and demand for office and
retail area reduces.
- The impact of the world economic crisis and Vietnam economic crisis are still prolong;
Besides,
according to the investment researches of consulting firms, the potential
retail in Vietnam is attracted by crowded and young population, who is dynamic,
open, and potential for consumption market.
Although Vietnam
population is approximately 90 million, but there are only 638 supermarkets,
120 commercial centres and more than 2,000 convenient stores. This number does
not meet the needs of people. Forecast, from now to 2014, the retail sales in
Vietnam will be increased 23% per year. Therefore, the potential of modern
commercial business development is huge.
Consequently, in
order to take the potential advantages of the Vietnam real estate as well as to
help the market to overcome gradually difficulties during the economic downturn,
it is necessary to consider the factors affecting the investment efficiently,
especially the project’s financial performance, by which to set up the
preventive plan. Develop projects, which strengthen the real estate market more
stable and developing.
Ms.
Hoang Quynh Anh made a case study which 2 main objectives were to: (i) research
the factors that affect to the financial
efficiency of the commercial real estate project commercial
in the recession
economy period; and (ii) give measures
to minimize the effect of factors
on financial efficiency of the project.
Conclusion
Each factor has a negative impact on the
efficiency of investment project. According to the detailed solutions, the
investors need to implement the project and in mid-2013 by using the following
reasons:
- The positive signal from the government’s measures to
restrain inflation, contributed to the project’s financial picture brighter,
inflation falls down under 10%, the interest rate remains at 9%, economy grows
slowly but it has progressed through each quarter;
- Vietnam is a market with the great potential
advantages of young population and high flexibility, rapid urbanization. Mostly
investors and investment advisory companies have said that if the difficulties
of the real estate market are temporary, it can be completely recovered when
the economy has positive changes.
- Real estate is a high profitable sector.
Besides, the Vietnam real estate market is facing to
the below challenges:
- The impact of the world economic crisis and Vietnam economic crisis are still prolong;
- The government’s solution has not brought the clear
results yet;
- The competition between investors about reducing
rental due to the rise of supply source of leasing area.
When the economic
difficulties led to the crisis, real estate investment projects have been
influenced heavily and may fail completely. In terms of the financial
performance of the project, for instance, the project is not profitable for
investors. The factors affect to the financial performance of the project
during the period of economic crisis including exchange rate; inflation; interest
rate; construction period; total capital; capital structure; occupancy rate; and
rental. When the economy is difficult,
these factors are not guaranteed to initial expected value and change in bad
direction, affect to the entire cash flow, financial indexes change negatively.
To solve this problem, proposed solution is based on the relationship between
factors and project cash flow, throughout the theories of basic financial
calculation, determining the degree of change of financial performance when it
has been influenced by these factors which have the solutions for each factor.
However, there are some limitations in this study. Firstly,
the study does not consider the influence of some other type of real estate
such as: apartments, townhouses, hotels, etc. Secondly, calculation depending
on the accuracy of input data does not anticipate all risks.
Recommendations
For
the purpose of preventing harm to the financial performance of the project when
the economy is difficult, recommendations are
as follows:
- Surveying market and assessing demands to have the
investment orientation proper in the feasibility study phase of the project.
- Completing marketing at the beginning of project, saving
marketing cost by selecting the form of effective advertising such as:
internet, attend exhibitions, contacting customer, attractive commission
order.
- Increasing number of customer by
establishing the principle contract, using memorandum of commitment after the
project completes;
- Having preferential policies on rents,
having convenient administrative procedures, lasting the rental period to
pre-order customers, committing about quality after selling.
- Researching the product and service properties of the
same type on the market, researching demands, purchasing power and taste of
customers to offer the reasonable price, adjusting price according to the
volatility of the market.
- Having
financial plan, mobilization channel finance flexibility, reducing the dependence
on bank;
- Taking advantage of supporting to the State policies
on interest rate, tax… when the economy is difficult;
- Completing the project on the schedule for project
operate quickly, early generating revenue;
- Ensuring quality construction, do not increase cost
and time due to repair of the damage, reducing maintenance cost when the
project puts into operation;
- In the operation
phase, it is necessary to establish management organization compact,
transparency in administration, training institutions for the necessary technical
personnel, saving cost.
According
to the above solutions, developers should take all measures, since these solutions
have been affecting to each stage of the project, and the final result is the
success of the project. However, developers need to pay special attention to
two factors below:
- Surveying
market and assessing needs of market in the feasibility study phase of the
project in order to direct the appropriate investment. This is crucial element
lead to the success of the project. Therefore, the survey data must be accurate
and updated, information supply must be reliable.
- Developers
need to make effective financial plan to backup all risks and to reduce
dependence on bank. This will help the project escapes from the difficult circumstances,
because finance is an important factor for investment decisions.
Paying
attention to two above factors, along with research methods, professional
calculation will give the project approach to success.
For further studies the following should
be analyzed:
- Making
the financial plans to ensure the safety of the project, increasing the diverse
capital such as issue of shares, taking advantage of customer deposits, bank
debt agreement…
- Extending
the study in some types of real estate such as apartment, hotel, downtown
house, land…
Continue studying the influence of the
factors of inflation and exchange rates which these indicators affect to the
entire cash flow of the project.
Her thesis
abstract is copied and posted below:
Abstract
Controlling the
financial performance of a project as the economy fell to recession is very
difficult, how a project can achieve profitability as planned? This is really
challenging and time-consuming for the financial management of the project,
since it involves to a wide range of issues within the project and the
objective problems of social. To answer this question, it is necessary to
determine what factors affect to the project finance in the circumstance of the
economic stagnation. This final report focuses on review how the financial
performance of a project changes when the input data changes, thereby
determining the factors affect the financial performance. Through a case study
is a construction project of commercial and office centre in HoChiMinh City,
according to the basic financial calculation theories, the report points out
the factors that affect financial performance of the project when the economy
is difficult. Since then, giving some measures to improve the situation,
maintain and develop the project.