Risk Management in Low-Income Housing Project Development in Ho Chi Minh City

Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is the one of the cities having highest population in Vietnam. Currently, migrants account for 21 percent of total population, and the average migration rate increases from 0.02% (1979-1989) to 0.84 (1989-1999) and reaches 2.33% (1999-2004) (Thanh, 2006). Most of people migrate to HCMC in order to get better employment opportunity, education condition, medical care, and so on (Thanh, 2006).

In order to increase housing supply for the poor, government has implemented different policies in various periods. However, housing supply for the poor is still low compared to demand. This market segment is still risky for developer (MOC, 2009).

Mr. Le Quoc Tuan made a case study which main objective was to propose the possible solution to manage the risks in low-income housing (LIH) project development. In order to achieve his main objective, the following objectives were needed to accomplish: (1) investigate the risk factors in each project phase during the implementation low-income housing project development, and (2) propose the recommendation to manage the risk factors in low-income housing project development.

Conclusion

In order to satisfy the first objective, the researcher reviewed book, journal, previous thesis, guideline, newspaper and so on to identify risk factors and then arranged them in four phases of project which are planning, financing, construction, and selling. After that, these risk factors were verified by 5 experts including deputy directors, government officials, and academician. Finally, the verified risk factors were analyzed through case study. The second objective, which was recommendation to manage risks, was made based on analysis case study and study literature.

It was found out that there are eight key risks for developer when investing in low-income housing project which are (1) complicated legislation procedure to get approval (2) low-profit margin controlled by government (3) unrealistic government support policy (4) risk in land acquisition from landowner (5) lack of fund to developers (6) inappropriate building standard (7) revenue risk due to ineffective demand (8) delay in selling housing unit.

Recommendation

The recommendations were made based on the risk analyses, suggestions from interviewees, and from literature review. The recommendations are presented as in the table below.

His thesis abstract is copied and posted

Abstract

Demand on low-cost housing for the poor in urban area of Vietnam is very high due to its high population, and high urbanization rate. Even though Government implemented many policies since 2009 in order to attract developers, the supply in low-income housing is still low compared to its demand. So far only 31 out of 263 registered low-income housing projects have been implementing. According to Ministry of Construction (2009), this market segment is still risky for developers. However, there are few researches on risk management specific in low-income housing projects. The purpose of this study is to propose recommendation to manage risks in low-income housing project development in Ho Chi Minh City.

This study used case study to conduct its two objectives. The first objective is to investigate risk factors in each phase of low-cost housing development. Researcher reviewed book, journal, previous thesis, guideline, newspaper and so on to identify 48 risk factors and then arranged them in four phases of project which are planning, financing, construction, and selling. After that, these risk factors were verified by 5 experts including deputy directors, government officials, and academician. Finally, the twelve verified risk factors will be analyzed through case study in Ho Chi Minh City. The second objective is to make recommendation to manage risks. The recommendation was made based on analysis of case study and study of literature.

The study found that developers are facing 8 risk factors and 12 risk sub-factors which are (1) complicated legislation procedure to get approval (2) low-profit margin controlled by government (3) unrealistic government support policy (4) risk in acquisition of land from landowner (5) lack of fund to developers (6) inappropriate building standard (7) revenue risk due to ineffective demand (8) delay in selling housing unit. Some recommendations to manage the risk are: (1) establish one independent government agency responsible for legislation issues, land acquisition, select the target low-income people, and guarantee for the output (3) government channels the fund borrowed from international agency such as World Bank, Asian Development Bank to developers with favorable interest rate or government guarantee for developers to borrow fund from bank (4) lower building standard.